Category Archives: Quarter finals

Euro 2012 QF 2: Germany vs Greece pre-match predictions

Germany is heavily favored.  They have to be.  Germany is going to step up a gear and, just as in QF 1, Greece is going to be facing a major class step up relative to Group A.  Every one has a shot and this Germany team is not as amazing as the 2010 World Cup team.  However, it is deeper and is going to be incredibly tough for anyone to beat.  They have given up only one goal on a two header corner.  While this is not as stone cold a lock as Portugal against the Czechs, expect Germany to win this game without much trouble.

Why Greece Will Win

  1. History repeats itself and they have already repeated the formula in beating Russia.
  2. They haven’t lost under the current coach in any meaningful match.
  3. They are playing for a nation that is in turmoil.  They know how much this could mean for their countrymen.

Why Germany will win

  1. Greece has very little offense.  Samaras has misfired and while Salpingidis had a great opening match, Karagounis is the only other Greek who has scored – or looks like he could score.  The German midfield will not allow Greece the room that Poland afforded them.  Unlike the Euro 2004 winning team, this Greek team doesn’t look an aerial threat from corners and free kicks.  That leaves very few avenues through which to get the one goal lead they can cling to like the 300.
  2. Greece’s back line has looked very porous at left back and in the center.  They choked Russia by clogging up the middle and the midfield held them at bay.  That is going to be very hard against a German offense that has created numerous chances in each of their three games so far.  Mario Gomez has already scored three goals and is going to be very hard for the Greeks to keep off the scoreboard.
  3. Germany is deep and is starting to display more speedy ball movement.  While Ozil has been good, but not great, Schweinsteiger has been very good.  The longer the tournament goes, the stronger both will get.  That is going to bode very well for Germany.  They have also won without goals from Muller.  If he comes good they will be unstoppable.  If he doesn’t, they have many players to go to with Goetze and Schurrle at the top of the list.
  4. The current draw means Germany has avoided Poland and Russia and has to get past England or Italy instead of Spain or France.  They would have taken that at the start of the tournament with both hands.  They can smell the final now and will not overlook the Greeks.

Pre-match prediction: Germany 2 Greece 0

Mario Gomez and Lukas Podolski will score for Germany.

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Euro 2012 QF 1: Portugal vs Czech Republic pre-match predictions

Portugal is favored.  They have to be.  While I shouldn’t insult teams at this stage by suggesting stone cold locks, of all the games in this tournament – even more than Germany vs Greece, this one is a lock.  The Czechs will not take Portugal by surprise.  To be clear, they got crushed by Russia, had 15 good minutes against the Greeks and won the second half against Poland.  Not an awe inspiring performance.

Why Czech Republic will win

  1. Gebre Selassie will frustrate Ronaldo and Pilar’s quick movement and offense down the left side will put pressure on Nani to backtrack.  With their wings blunted, Portugal will struggle to score up front and Ronaldo will drift inside where the Czechs can pack it in and eliminate space and time.
  2. Baros had a good game against Poland and harried the Polish defense all night.  If he has a good game, anything can happen.  He set up Jiracek’s winning goal against the Poles and the Czechs are hoping he can do the same tonight.
  3. Petr Cech has had a below average tournament with a couple of glaring errors.  However, this is the man who saved three penalties in the Champions League final and one against Messi in the semifinals.  Who would you bet on if this got to penalty kicks?  Ronaldo has missed penalties in the semifinals of the Champions League twice (vs Barcelona and Bayern Munich) and in the finals once (vs Barcelona).  He is not going to fancy the situation if it gets to that stage.

Why Portugal will win

  1. Nani and Ronaldo cannot be contained in the form they are in.  Also, the effort to do so is going to blunt much of the wing back play from Pilar and Gebre Selasssie.  Nani should have scored from Ronaldo’s set up against Netherlands and Ronaldo did score from Nani’s pass.  When Ronaldo starts drifting inside every so often, he is incredibly dangerous as a playmaker and in drawing fouls that lead to free kicks.  I expect Ronaldo to score on a free kick in the next two matches.
  2. Pepe and Bruno Alves.  Yes, they have given up goals in every match, including three off headers.  However, Baros is going to struggle against the two of them – he isn’t Gomez or Bendtner.  Jiracek will also struggle against Veloso, Moutinho and Meireles who are the unsung heroes of this Portugese run – they have been solid in midfield.
  3. They are peaking.  They can see the path to winning this tournament.  Ronaldo is off his duck, they have had a late game winning goal and are playing to their offensive talents.
  4. Tomas Rosicky is not going to play.  This is the stage when every team needs their best player to make it happen.  Pilar and Jiracek are not going to be able to fill the void.

Pre-game prediction: Portugal 2 Czech Republic 0

Ronaldo scores again and Nani finally slots one in as well.  Only way the Czechs can win is if this goes to penalty kicks.

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Euro 2012 Pre-Quarterfinal predictions – Updated Winner

This is what I wrote pre-tournament:

The knockout rounds

QF 1: Russia vs Netherlands (Netherlands to advance)

QF 2: Germany vs Poland (Germany to advance)

QF 3: Spain vs England (Spain to advance)

QF 4: France vs Ireland (France to advance)

Yes, all top four seeds to go through. Pretty predictable – which means upsets are sure to come.

Spain beats Netherlands in SF1 and Germany beats France in SF2 with Germany beating Spain in the finals.

The current odds have Spain and Germany more or less even at around 3/1, with the Netherlands around 6/1, France at 10/1 and England and Italy at about 15/1.  The dark horse in this tournament is the Netherlands (if you can call them a dark horse as the third best team), while my upset pick is Portugal (which at 20/1 is “well worth a flutter” as the Brits put it).  The Player of Euro 2012 will be Mesut Ozil.

Now that we know what’s happened, I had only 4 out of 8 quarter finalists correct and only two positions correct i.e. that Spain and Germany would win their groups.  Of all of the upsets, I would say the Czech Republic winning Group A is the biggest and at this stage I feel like other than the Czech Republic and Greece, any of the other six teams can win Euro 2012.  While Germany has won all 3 games and Spain has won 2 and drawn 1, neither has shown that they are runaway winners.  With a chance to step up and display their class before the knockout rounds, both teams were potentially on course to get knocked out of the tournament with 10 minutes to go in their last match.  Not championship confirming credentials.  That said, they are both on course and still my picks to get to the final and Germany is still the tournament favorite in my book.

The UPDATED knockout rounds

QF 1: Czech Republic vs Portugal (Portugal to advance)

QF 2: Germany vs Greece (Germany to advance)

QF 3: Spain vs France (Spain to advance)

QF 4: England vs Italy (Italy to advance)

Any of the eight teams can win their quarterfinal match.  It’s that close.  However, I think the only one that isn’t a stone cold lock in my book is England vs Italy with the Italians probably slightly favored in this encounter.

Spain beats England in SF1 and Germany beats Portugal in SF2 with Germany beating Spain in the finals.

That said, don’t be surprised if Portugal wins this tournament and England gets to the finals.  Portugal was my upset pick pre tournament and as long as Pepe and Bruno Alves don’t pick up two yellow cards before the final, they can absolutely beat Germany and get to the finals where they can get past Spain, England or France.  The one team they will struggle against may be Italy.  The Player of Euro 2012 so far has been… no one.  Pilar, Pepe, Mario Gomez, Karagounis, Iniesta, Benzema, Gerrard and Pirlo have all been huge for their teams, but this is the time for the big guns to step up. I think an odds on bet now would suggest a Real Madrid player will be the player of the tournament with Ozil, Ronaldo and Benzema all going to have to be huge for their teams to win Euro 2012.  I still like Ozil to be this Euros’ Xavi – though if Ozil does his job for Germany, it will be Mario Gomez in a landslide as top goal scorer and player of the tournament.


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Portugal v Germany Quarter final: pre-game prediction

Portugal wins.  No prose.  Going with the bullets.

  1. Cristiano Ronaldo.  Like he isn’t already motivated, Lehmann fires him up even more by saying that he knows his weakness since Arsenal has had great success against him over the last few years.
  2. Portugal has pace on the wings – the German midfield and back four are just too slow.  They couldn’t control Korkmaz properly.  How exactly are they going to keep up with Simao, Ronaldo, Moutinho along with Nani and Quaresma off the bench?
  3. Germany has lacked drive in the middle of the park.  IF Ballack plays well and IF Schweinsteiger shows the drive he was starting to display before his red card against Croatia, then Germany may have a chance – don’t forget that Bastian had a hat trick against Portugal in the 3rd place match at World Cup 2006.  But I think the extra time that Deco should get against the German midfield – especially if Frings is out – is going to kill Germany.
  4. Pepe and Carvalho are good in the air.  Bet Gomez doesn’t start.  So it’s going to be tougher for Klose to win aerial battles.  Germany’s chance is going to come from one twos between Podolski and Klose.  Also, whoever is coming down the right wing needs to put pressure on Ferreira – he’s the weak link.  Too bad Lahm plays on the left.  Maybe Loew should switch him to right back to get the matchup.
  5. Germany hasn’t played well since the first half against Poland.
  6. Portugal is well rested with their starters having had a week off between games.  Germany had to labor through 90 minutes a few days ago against Austria and Podolski is supposedly banged up.

However, this is the Germans, so don’t ever count them out.  Especially if Portugal doesn’t get Ronaldo the ball on the wing enough.

Pre-game prediction: Portugal 2 Germany 1

Man of the match will be Deco…

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