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Euro 2012 Match 12: Netherlands vs Germany pre-game predictions

This is the match up of round 2 and the second most anticipated match outside of Germany vs Spain.  If Germany wins, they qualify for the next round.  Lose and the Netherlands is out of the tournament.  If Denmark wins, Holland will know that only a win will keep them in the tournament.  So, playing second should help them determine how aggressively they will need to play in this match.  It should be fascinating as Robben plays against the defense he practices against every day – Lahm, Badstuber, Boateng and goalie Neuer are all part of the Bayern Munich defense.

Why Netherlands will win

  1. Sneijder was in great form in the first match.  He helped create a lot of chances for the Netherlands and they can expect that their finishing will be sharper today.
  2. Hummels was a rock in defense for Germany.  However, the German defense did give up a number of chances – especially late on – to Portugal, and were lucky not to be scored against.  If the German defense performs similarly today against the Dutch, they will be punished.
  3. Huntelaar was the top scorer in the Bundesliga this past season.  Expect him to come off the bench early if van Persie isn’t firing.  A ready made striking solution off the bench is a necessity and in the Hunter, the Netherlands has one of the best.
  4. They are very familiar with the Germans.  Just like Germany is due a win against Spain, the Netherlands is due a win against Germany
  5. Mathijsen is expected to return to central defense to bolster a shaky central defense for the Netherlands.

Why Germany will win

  1. They know the Dutch players very well.  Robben, van Bommel, de Jong, Huntelaar – all of them have played or are playing in the Bundesliga.
  2. Germany beat Portugal while playing a sub par game relative to their own standards.  Quick ball movement and team speed, which are hallmarks of this German team, were absent.  Low will fix that and I expect Podolski, Ozil and especially Schweinsteiger to have much better games.
  3. A win puts them into the next round.  Germany will look for that here to stay on course for winning Euro 2012.
  4. The Netherlands will be a lot more attacking than Portugal.  That should open up more space for Muller, Ozil and Podolski to operate.  In a battle of two offenses, I would go with the Germans who have more offensive depth in midfield that the Dutch since van Bommel and de Jong are more defensive minded.

Pre-game prediction: Netherlands 1 Germany 2

Podolski and Muller score for Germany and van Persie scores one for Netherlands.

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Netherlands vs Denmark: post-game comments

You can’t really call it an upset when the #10 team in the world beats somebody, but this was a surprise result.  The Dutch did outshoot the Danes, Robben did hit a post and Huntelaar was denied what should have been a penalty for a Danish handball late in the game, but the Dutch didn’t really play like potential champions.  Sneijder did his part (his outside of the right foot 40 yard pass to hit Huntelaar in stride in the penalty box was sheer class), but van Persie and Robben were off color and the coach should have brought van der Vaart and Huntelaar on earlier.  Nonetheless, it was a great win for Denmark and Kjaer, Poulsen and Agger did very well.

This result means that, assuming Germany performs as expected, the second team to go through in this group will be determined by how many points each of them can win off of Germany.  Head to head performances are the first tie breaker prior to checking on goal difference.  So, if we assume Germany beats Portugal next, Portugal beats Denmark in the second round and Netherlands beats Portugal in the last match – those are a lot of assumptions – all the teams will have a chance to go through if they can get at least 1 point off of Germany.  This group is thoroughly in flux and could be even more so if Portugal beats Germany shortly.

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Euro 2012 Match 3: Netherlands vs Denmark pre-game predictions

The Group of Death is going to have step up to match the Greece vs Poland tournament opener that provided more drama than most Champions League second legs with two red cards, a penalty saved by the substitute goalkeeper and a disallowed goals.  Everyone is eagerly awaiting Match 4 between Germany and Portugal; however, the prior game between Netherlands and Denmark will probably have more bearing on the outcome of the group as the loser is going to face an incredibly difficult time qualifying for the next stage given that the loser will have to probably beat both Germany and Portugal to move on.

Why Denmark will win

  1. This is a cohesive team that isn’t under pressure as the expectations are not high for the lowest ranked team in the group.  However, Denmark is ranked #10 in the FIFA World Rankings and so has quality in the side to beat any side on any given day – as evidenced by the fact that they finished above Portugal in qualifying.
  2. Denmark has highly skilled players at the key positions:  Nicklas Bendtner is a tall striker who is good in the air and supremely confident in his own abilities; Christian Eriksen is a brilliant creative midfielder and the favorite to win the Young Player of Euro 2012 award after having debuted as the youngest player in World Cup 2010; Daniel Agger is an experienced central defender with a wicked left foot.
  3. The Netherlands’ Mathijsen is out with a hamstring injury and left back is a potential problem with 18 year old Jetro Willems slated to start.
  4. Netherlands might be a bit distracted by the furor surrounding the racist treatment of some of their players earlier this week during practice.

Why Netherlands will win

  1. Wesley Sneijder, Robben and Robin van Persie are in good form.  If any of the three have an off day, they can be replaced by van der Vaart, Afellay, Kuyt and Huntelaar.  That level of skilled offensive depth is unique.
  2. Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong are tough and positionally sound holding midfielders who can protect some of the defensive frailties of the Dutch back line.  They will corral young Eriksen and cut off Bendtner’s supply.
  3. This is an experienced team that reached the quarterfinals of Euro 2008 and almost won World Cup 2010.

Pre-match prediction: Netherlands 2 Denmark 1

The Dutch offense will be too much for Agger, Kjaer and Stephan Andersen (Thomas Sorenson’s replacement in goal).  Alternately, while veteran Dennis Rommedahl is still fast, Denmark is collectively not quick enough to take advantage of the Dutch lack of speed in the middle of the park.  Robin van Persie and Wesley Sneijder to score for the Netherlands and Rommedahl to pull one back for the Netherlands.

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Predictions before the Final group games

Group A: Mexico and Uruguay will go through.  I believe Mexico will beat Uruguay for top spot, thus avoiding Argentina

Group B: Argentina and S. Korea go through.  Nigeria might beat S. Korea, but I’m thinking goalless or 1-1 draw.  Nigeria is currently -2 in goal difference while S. Korea is -1, so if Nigeria beat S. Korea, they are through.

Group C: England and the US will go through.  England will beat Slovenia and Rooney will score – guarantee it.  The US will fumble around but beat Algeria to go through.

Group D: Ghana and Serbia.  I’m picking an upset.  I don’t believe Germany will be able to beat Ghana while Serbia will beat Australia.

Group E: Netherlands and Japan.  I think the Danes are too loose in defense and Japan is going to score on the break.  They were tough against the Dutch and I think Denmark will struggle to break them down.

Group F: Paraguay and Italy.  Crazy as it seems, the Italians will beat or draw with Slovakia to go through.

Group G: Brazil and Portugal.  7-0 took care of that.

Group H: Spain and Chile.  This one’s the craziest.  I just can’t bring myself to think Spain won’t make it through – especially with Chile’s suspensions.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chile draws and Switzerland goes through at Spain’s expense.  It would be an injustice if Chile didn’t make it.

Stone cold locks in this round: England over Slovenia, Serbia over Australia.

Still sticking with my pre tourney prediction – Brazil wins the World Cup if they win their group and the Dutch win if Brazil doesn’t.

Young players I really like in this tourney so far include: Ozil, Gio Dos Santos, Weiss (Slovenia), Elia, Gervinho, Navas and Subotic.  Kjaer hasn’t been bad either – just has no experienced partner in central defense to bail him out on a couple of highly visible errors.

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2nd semi final: Spain v Russia – pre game prediction

While this is a toss up, I pick Spain to beat Russia. Pundits have commented on how Spain seems to have slowed down while Russia has picked up their speed and look like world beaters. Yes, Spain slowed down, but a lot of it was down to playing against the Italians and their catenaccio system of play. In fact, I would suggest that Spain needs to play at a slower tempo so as not to give Russia gaps to exploit in the Spanish half and to negate Russia’s late game fitness edge.

Forget about the first game. As I said then, Russia was in that game and if they had put away one of their early chances, it would have been a very different game at 1-1. The final scoreline is irrelevant and the Russians didn’t have Arshavin or a firing Pavlyuchenko. I believe this game will be decided by three factors. The absence of Kolodin is a big loss and one that is going to hamper the Russians’ ability to keep Villa and Torres in check. Torres is due. Another key battle is how well Ramos and Capdevilla deal with Arshavin. I think they are faster than the Dutch defenders and so should be better capable – they have also been forewarned that Arshavin is a real player. Ramos also needs to concentrate on staying home as Arshavin will be backed up by an overlapping Zhirkov on the left wing. Finally, Spain needs to put Cesc in from the start. They need his drive and two way play. If he starts instead of Iniesta, Spain have a better chance of winning the midfield battle and it will give Xavi more room.

Arragones, please listen to me. Start Cesc for Iniesta. Silva did well, so I am okay with him starting, but you need Cesc to help Senna and Xavi out.

Hiddink, I have nothing to tell you. You are the best at the international game right now. Good luck.

Pre-game prediction: Spain 2 Russia 1

Wouldn’t be surprised if this went to extra time though I doubt it will go to penalties. I just can’t believe that Spain will crash out again to a Hiddink team after the heartbreak in Korea in 2002…

Here are the links to the blogs from the first Spain v Russia matchup in group play

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/group-d-pre-game-predictions-spain-vs-russia-greece-vs-sweden/

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/spain-vs-russia-half-time/

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/spain-vs-russia-post-match/

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Holland vs France – post game

Now that was a fun game to watch. The 2008 Dutch model reminds me a lot of the 2000 model – exciting to watch, with fantastic technique and movement going forward. I still have questions about the middle of the defense and the holding midfielder, Engelaar, didn’t really stem the flow of the French down the middle of the park.

However, they are through as the winner of Group C, which means they will probably play either Russia or Sweden in the quarter finals. They can beat both those teams, which means they will either play Italy or France or Spain in the semi finals. They have beaten the first two handily and I have doubts that Spain’s central duo can keep this squad from scoring. I don’t know that Ooijer and Mathijsen can keep Torres and Villa off the scoreboard either, but based on current form, I am a believer in the Dutch. So it’s looking good for the Dutch to get to the finals. Normally, you would be concerned with the Dutch in knockout matches given their poor record in penalties. However, this team has great penalty takers – Ruud, Van Persie, Gio Van Bronckhorst, Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Rafael Van der Vaart – and Van Der Sar is one goalkeeper I would have all the confidence in the world in, given his recent winning save in the Champions League Final in Moscow.

France outplayed Holland – yes, I will refer to them as Holland till they lose (and the dead match against Romania doesn’t count since they will probably rest some of their starters and players on yellow cards) – for the first 60 minutes and had the bulk of possession during that period. However, as so often happens, the Dutch had two real chances and put in two goals while the French couldn’t put away their chances much like Italy couldn’t against Romania. Henry, in particular, was wasteful. I don’t understand why the strikers at Euro 2008 aren’t rounding the keeper on breakaways. With his speed, he should have gone around Van der Sar. He chose to try to lob it instead. Why, Thierry, would you lob with the top of the boot instead of sidefooting the lob given that you had enough time and space? One has so much more control when one does that. Instead, he put it over the crossbar. Yes, Ooijer should have been penalized for his handball off Henry’s blast, but c’est la vie. There is no way France should have given up goal #3 to Robben within a minute of cutting it to 2-1… and the angle he scored from was hard to swallow. People are blaming Coupet, but sometimes, you just have to admit that a blast to the top of the goal from that angle is unexpected and hard to stop when struck with that pace. You just can’t get your palms up fast enough to push it over the top of the bar or block it back.

Domenech, you are terrible. No Nasri or Benzema. Can’t you see that your old guys aren’t getting it done – look at the Dutch team to get a clue? And you play Maka the whole game when you are trailing. Terrible decision making. I hope Les Blues fire you and bring in Laurent Blanc or Didier Deschamps as coach of the national team.

On the other hand, Marco van Basten, you are the MAN. I LOVE YOUR SUBSTITUTIONS. I suggested you get more speed in midfield by bringing on Robben or Van Persie in the second half. You bring on BOTH! Forget protecting the lead. You rightly believed that a good defense is a good offense. Fans, like CH12, bray for that all the time, but then we don’t have the pressure to get results. Few coaches ever subscribe to that cliched philosophy. But, you did – the cynics may say you already know you are leaving for Ajax after the tournament, so what the heck. However, it was brilliant and that’s why I am rooting for the Dutch to win the Euros 20 years after they last won it in 1988, when Van Basten scored one of the most unbelievable goals ever in the final against Russia (“rooting” not predicting – this is the Dutch team after all). If you think Robben’s angle was tight, check out that goal. So your two subs combine to score the second goal and Robben scores the third. Wesley, master strike for the fourth goal. The final compliment is to Ruud – the Zidane-step-on-the-ball-and-spin for a pass move!?? Who knew?! It absolutely set up Robben’s lane down the wing and led to the second goal.

Pre-game prediction: France 2 Holland 1

Result: France 1 Holland 4 ( “If one is going to be wrong, sometimes it is best to be spectacularly so” – CH12 June 13, 2008 )

Scorers: Dirk Kuyt, Robin Van Persie, Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder (Holland) Thierry Henry (France)

Man of the match for Holland was Arjen Robben; for France: Ribery again.

CH12 is now 6 and 8. Got to come back strong tomorrow to get back to even. Maybe I will use Van Basten’s philosophy and go with the thought that the best defense is to go with the offense…

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Holland vs France – pre game prediction

The crystal ball changes from minute to minute.  This is a tough one.  If the Dutch show up the way they did against Italy and the French show up the way they did against Romania, it’s relatively easy to call the Dutch winners.  However, I think the Dutch drop a bit, even with Van Persie possibly starting and the French do better simply because the Dutch will not have 10 men behind the ball like Romania.  There will be more space for the French midfield.  I also think Andre Ooijer and Joris Mathijesen are going to have a much harder time with Benzema and Anelka/Henry/Gomis. 

Domenech needs to start Nasri so that there is more speed and energy going forward else the French midfield will be overrun by the faster Dutch set up of Van der Vaart, Engelaar and Sneijder.   Toulalan and Maka should be enough to slow down the Dutch and give the defense numbers against Ruud and company.  Unsure of how solid Gallas and Thuram are in the middle of the park since Romania didn’t really test them.  Should be a barnstormer.

I still can’t figure out how to call it, but I think there will be goals and I think its a 2 all draw, with the French the more likely to win the game.  Will update once we know the Italy v Romania result.

Pre-game prediction: France 2 Holland 2

Ruud and Benzema will score…   Continue reading

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