Tag Archives: gomez

Euro 2012 Semi final 2: Germany vs Italy pre match prediction

After watching Italy labor against England, and have to play extra time, this is a stone cold lock – Germany wins this semi final easily.  Everyone has a chance when you play a match at this level.  However, this is as certain an outcome as there has been in the knockout stage – even more than Germany beating Greece.  The only event that could derail a German victory is Neuer or one of the defenders getting a red card while giving up a penalty to Italy.

Why Italy Will Win

  1. Gigi Buffon has the greatest game any Italian goalie has ever had.
  2. Coach Low decides to do something unconventional up front and doesn’t start his top three of Gomez, Muller and Podolski.
  3. Italy usually beats Germany in major tournaments and usually wins in semi finals.
  4. Germany gives Pirlo too much time on the ball and doesn’t put him under enough pressure when he is on defense.

Why Germany will win

  1. Two extra days of rest and 30 minutes less of high stress extra time running.  Also, Muller, Gomez and Podolski didn’t even play half of the quarterfinal against Greece so they are going to be fresh.
  2. They’ve beaten every one else so far and Italy doesn’t look that great.
  3. Ozil, Muller and Podolski will not give Pirlo a free pass when Germany has the ball.  They will expose his lack of pace on defense and the space behind him is going to be gobbled up by Ozil.  It’s the reason Milan got rid of him after Manchester United exposed his liabilities so adroitly a couple of years ago.  The German midfield will not let Italy have any time on the ball and by the 60 minute mark, fatigue will set in and the Italians will struggle.
  4. While Badstuber hasn’t been particularly great, Hummels, Lahm and Neuer have played well enough to corral Cassano and Balotelli.

Pre match prediction:  Germany 2 Italy 0

Muller hasn’t scored yet.  That will change.  Gomez will add a second.  See you in the finals Spain.

 

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Euro 2012 Match 19, 20: Netherlands vs Portugal and Germany vs Denmark pre-game predictions

CH12 couldn’t blog yesterday – too much partying.  So I didn’t get the predictions in for the last matches of Group A.  I would have predicted a Czech / Poland draw and a Russian victory.  I would have been wrong on both counts and I certainly didn’t see Greece going through.  Shocking but you have to love this tournament.  What I don’t like is UEFA’s eliminating the results of the game against the eliminated team in determining goal difference.  That’s wrong.  Goal difference should be the first thing people look at before head to head results IMO.  Anyway.

Now that Russia has gotten knocked out, expect no let up from Germany.  They will beat Denmark by 2 goals today – it also is the last match before single elimination.  I expect Low to go for the kill and if Germany gets up by 2 early on, expect to see Klose and Goetze.

Pre-game prediction: Germany 3 Denmark 1

Podolski, Gomez and Muller to score for Germany and Bendtner for Denmark.

Portugal vs Netherlands promises to be the most entertaining match of the tournament as neither team can afford not to win.  The Dutch especially have to come out firing.  Van Bommel is suspended so De Jong will be the only holding midfielder.  I expect that van der Vaart or Strootman will start instead and maybe Huntelaar starts ahead of Afellay.  Either way, this gives a lot of room for Ronaldo and Nani and I think it will be a display of frighteningly effective wing play today.  High scoring game.

Pre-game prediction: Portugal 3 Netherlands 2

Ronaldo and Nani to score for Portugal and Huntelaar and Sneijder to respond for the Dutch.

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Euro 2012 Match 11: Denmark vs Portugal

Both teams will feel like they have to win.  Denmark doesn’t want to have to go into the last game against Germany on four points – defeat to Germany and a win by Portugal against Netherlands could put Denmark potentially out on goal difference.  Portugal has got to want to go into the last game knowing that a draw would put them through instead of having to win.  A loss will probably end Portugal’s tournament.

Why Denmark will win

  1. They’ve beaten Portugal in qualifying after having finished ahead of Portugal and qualified directly from their group.  They were also in the same group during World Cup 2010 qualifying – their record over these last four matches is 2-1-1.  Denmark know they can win.
  2. In Silberbauer they have someone capable of competing defensively with Cristiano Ronaldo.  He did so adequately in the group stage and will have help from Agger, Kjaer and the midfield so he’s not on an island against the best winger in the world.  It will be interesting to see if Silberbauer or Poulsen start at left back.  They may deal with Nani instead as Ronaldo usually plays on the left with Nani on the right.
  3. Denmark beat a loaded Dutch team in the first group match and controlled the second half of the game.
  4. Agger and Kjaer have looked good in the central defense.  That gives them enough confidence to deal with Portugal and their still unsolved striker position.

Why Portugal will win

  1. Denmark did give up a number of chances to Robben and van Persie.  While Robben is one of the best right wingers in the world, so is Nani.  The difference is you also have Ronaldo to deal with on the weak side when Nani has the ball – will Jacobsen at right back be able to handle Ronaldo?  Nani has scored three times against Denmark so the wing position is going to give Denmark trouble.
  2. They have to in order to have a chance at qualifying.
  3. Pepe and Bruno Alves did stifle Gomez for the most part and Bendtner shouldn’t be any different.  While Eriksen should have more space and time in the middle of the park, he will find it hard to work his magic against the work rate of Meireles and Veloso.  Chances will be few for Denmark.
  4. Ronaldo had a decent game against Germany.  However, he didn’t receive the support required to open up more space for him to operate as Portugal played defensively against Germany.  That will change against Denmark – expect Ronaldo to be unleashed and move to the middle a lot more.  He should have switched flanks with Nani in the last game and gone against the much shorter Lahm.  I believe they will be more flexible on the wings this time.

Pre-game prediction: Portugal 1 Denmark 0

Nani scores one for Portugal in a tense but offensive minded match.
  

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Who will win Euro 2008 – pre final

I picked Spain early and, while this is not an easy match up for them, I still think they will win against Germany.

Initial take on the potential formation and the impact of Villa’s injury

Villa not playing is a big loss but it may actually work in their favor if it forces Aragones to play the extra man in midfield – hopefully it’s Cesc Fabregas. That is going to cause the Germans to play five in midfield as well and I think that plays into the Spanish hands as they are better at moving the ball and will allow their defenders a better chance to handle the aerial abilities of Klose since he will usually be outnumbered in the Spanish half.

The match ups

This game is going to be won or lost based on who creates the most chances from midfield. I think Germany has really flattered to deceive. The Poland game was fool’s gold as they played too openly and made the Germans look better than they were. Croatia carved them up and they didn’t really impress against Austria. Against Portugal – good result but two of the three goals were defensive mistakes on free kicks. Ballack hasn’t played a great game yet. Schweinsteiger and Podolski are the ones doing all the damage for Germany. That advantage is going to be smaller against Spain. If Cesc starts, it will make it hard for Germany to focus on shutting down Xavi as the playmaker. Spain is too mobile and will give Mertesacker and Metzelder a hard time on the ground. So Spain wins the midfield battle and generate chances. It is us to Torres and Silva to get the goals. This is the game for Torres to deliver. I keep saying that, but with Villa out, it’s his time and I think he will come through. Cesc will help him out. Silva’s scoring in the semi should also give him the confidence to be aggressive in the final.

The German left wing is going to be a big battle. Podolski and Lahm on Ramos is going to be a very good matchup. Look out Sergio. Don’t forget about getting back. Lahm, with Frings backing him up and Podolski in front of him, is going to break down the left wing often. Concentrate on the tackle. Cesc is going to have to help him out as Iniesta is not the answer. Spain obviously needs to limit dead ball opportunities for the Germans where their height advantage will cause the Spanish defense problems. Free kicks are more dangerous than the corners where Casillas can be more effective. Puyol and Marchena are going to have to concentrate on Klose for the full 90 minutes.

Other

Lehmann is looking shaky while Casillas has been playing well. Spain seems to have a deeper bench, especially since Gomez has played poorly and Kuranyi not at all. I’d take Loew over Aragones. Germany has the mental edge since they have played in so many of these finals. Never count the Germans out. Big question – we know the Germans can rally from being down a goal, but can Spain (the Greece game doesn’t count)??

Pre-game prediction: Spain 3 Germany 2

Torres, Ramos to score for Spain with Podolski and Ballack scoring for Germany. Top performers will be Podolski, Cesc and Casillas.

I want to hear from all of you out there. More to come prior to the game on Sunday…

Prior blogs with my predictions on the winner are below:

Prior to semi finals

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/25/who-will-win-euro-2008-pre-semi-finals/

Day 0 of the tournament

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/07/who-will-euro-2008-day-0/

Pre-tournament (actually about the most accurate overall call CH12 has made this tournament)

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/who-will-win-euro-2008/

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Portugal v Germany Quarter final: pre-game prediction

Portugal wins.  No prose.  Going with the bullets.

  1. Cristiano Ronaldo.  Like he isn’t already motivated, Lehmann fires him up even more by saying that he knows his weakness since Arsenal has had great success against him over the last few years.
  2. Portugal has pace on the wings – the German midfield and back four are just too slow.  They couldn’t control Korkmaz properly.  How exactly are they going to keep up with Simao, Ronaldo, Moutinho along with Nani and Quaresma off the bench?
  3. Germany has lacked drive in the middle of the park.  IF Ballack plays well and IF Schweinsteiger shows the drive he was starting to display before his red card against Croatia, then Germany may have a chance – don’t forget that Bastian had a hat trick against Portugal in the 3rd place match at World Cup 2006.  But I think the extra time that Deco should get against the German midfield – especially if Frings is out – is going to kill Germany.
  4. Pepe and Carvalho are good in the air.  Bet Gomez doesn’t start.  So it’s going to be tougher for Klose to win aerial battles.  Germany’s chance is going to come from one twos between Podolski and Klose.  Also, whoever is coming down the right wing needs to put pressure on Ferreira – he’s the weak link.  Too bad Lahm plays on the left.  Maybe Loew should switch him to right back to get the matchup.
  5. Germany hasn’t played well since the first half against Poland.
  6. Portugal is well rested with their starters having had a week off between games.  Germany had to labor through 90 minutes a few days ago against Austria and Podolski is supposedly banged up.

However, this is the Germans, so don’t ever count them out.  Especially if Portugal doesn’t get Ronaldo the ball on the wing enough.

Pre-game prediction: Portugal 2 Germany 1

Man of the match will be Deco…

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Group B post game – Germany v Austria, Croatia v Poland

Well, Germany are through, but that was a pretty tepid performance.  I would have thought Loew would have seen the writing on the wall and put in Kuranyi or Neuville for Gomez, but I guess he wanted to give him a chance to put one on the board and rebuild his confidence.  As it was, he blew a two yard open net tap in five minutes into the game, didn’t go for the rebound header and then meandered his way about for 60 minutes before being subbed for Neuville.  Ballack did step up and blasted a rocket of a free kick – the first one scored at Euro 2008 – but was quiet for the rest of the game.  Podolski was again the only German, with momentary flashes from Lahm, who seemed capable of doing anything meaningful. Still, it was enough to send Austria home.  Thanks for hosting, we have some nice parting gifts for you (my version of Kenny Smith’s “Time to go Fishing”).  Players of the game – for Germany it was Podolski, for Austria it was Korkmaz.

If Germany are to beat Portugal, they are going to have do way better.  The main thing missing seems to be creativity and drive in the middle of the park and a lack of team speed, especially on the wings.  Ballack has not really got into gear in any of the matches so far.  Will have more on game tactics against Portugal before Thursday’s quarterfinal.

The Poland game saw Croatia’s second team show aggression and desire and they deservedly won that game 1-0 with Klasnic putting a very nice left footed grasscutter to the far post.  End of Poland’s tournament. Keep in mind that Poland is the team that finished above Portugal in qualifying and beat Portugal at home 2-1 and drew 2-2 away.  Not that that means much if you want to triangulate those facts with Germany beating Poland 2-0 a week ago to determine the winner of the quarterfinal between Germany and Portugal…

Pre-game prediction: Germany 3 Austria 1

Result: Germany 1 Austria 0

Scorer: Michael Ballack (Germany)

Pre-game prediction: Poland 2 Croatia 1

Result: Poland 0 Croatia 1

Scorer: Ivan Klasnic (Croatia)

Can’t wait till tomorrow.  This is going to a treat with the France v Italy game juxtaposed with Romania v Holland.  Hopefully, the Romania game is 0-0 at the half so as to give France and Italy all the motivation they may need to go for the win…

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Group B predictions for second round of play – Germany v Croatia, Poland v Austria

I think this will be similar to the Group A second round results.  Croatia will play better than they did against Austria.  But Germany will play better than they did against Poland.  Modric will struggle against Ballack and Frings in the center of the field and will start drifting to the wings to find more room and time.  No double for Podolski this time.  I think it’s time for Ballack and Gomez to score.  Klose will have at least one more assist.  Lehmann gets a clean sheet.  Interesting to see if Olic and friends can make things a bit more difficult for the slower Metzelder and Mertesacker.

Austria will give Poland a run for their money but the Poles will come through – they have to with Croatia having beaten Austria.  However, it’s going to be tight.  Austria know that if they lose this game, they have a high likelihood of getting blanked at this tournament with Germany being their next and last opponent.  A draw is likely but I give the nod to Poland as I still think they go through ahead of Croatia.

Pre-game prediction:

Germany 2 Croatia 0

Poland 2 Austria 1

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