Tag Archives: metzelder

Who will win Euro 2008 – pre final

I picked Spain early and, while this is not an easy match up for them, I still think they will win against Germany.

Initial take on the potential formation and the impact of Villa’s injury

Villa not playing is a big loss but it may actually work in their favor if it forces Aragones to play the extra man in midfield – hopefully it’s Cesc Fabregas. That is going to cause the Germans to play five in midfield as well and I think that plays into the Spanish hands as they are better at moving the ball and will allow their defenders a better chance to handle the aerial abilities of Klose since he will usually be outnumbered in the Spanish half.

The match ups

This game is going to be won or lost based on who creates the most chances from midfield. I think Germany has really flattered to deceive. The Poland game was fool’s gold as they played too openly and made the Germans look better than they were. Croatia carved them up and they didn’t really impress against Austria. Against Portugal – good result but two of the three goals were defensive mistakes on free kicks. Ballack hasn’t played a great game yet. Schweinsteiger and Podolski are the ones doing all the damage for Germany. That advantage is going to be smaller against Spain. If Cesc starts, it will make it hard for Germany to focus on shutting down Xavi as the playmaker. Spain is too mobile and will give Mertesacker and Metzelder a hard time on the ground. So Spain wins the midfield battle and generate chances. It is us to Torres and Silva to get the goals. This is the game for Torres to deliver. I keep saying that, but with Villa out, it’s his time and I think he will come through. Cesc will help him out. Silva’s scoring in the semi should also give him the confidence to be aggressive in the final.

The German left wing is going to be a big battle. Podolski and Lahm on Ramos is going to be a very good matchup. Look out Sergio. Don’t forget about getting back. Lahm, with Frings backing him up and Podolski in front of him, is going to break down the left wing often. Concentrate on the tackle. Cesc is going to have to help him out as Iniesta is not the answer. Spain obviously needs to limit dead ball opportunities for the Germans where their height advantage will cause the Spanish defense problems. Free kicks are more dangerous than the corners where Casillas can be more effective. Puyol and Marchena are going to have to concentrate on Klose for the full 90 minutes.

Other

Lehmann is looking shaky while Casillas has been playing well. Spain seems to have a deeper bench, especially since Gomez has played poorly and Kuranyi not at all. I’d take Loew over Aragones. Germany has the mental edge since they have played in so many of these finals. Never count the Germans out. Big question – we know the Germans can rally from being down a goal, but can Spain (the Greece game doesn’t count)??

Pre-game prediction: Spain 3 Germany 2

Torres, Ramos to score for Spain with Podolski and Ballack scoring for Germany. Top performers will be Podolski, Cesc and Casillas.

I want to hear from all of you out there. More to come prior to the game on Sunday…

Prior blogs with my predictions on the winner are below:

Prior to semi finals

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/25/who-will-win-euro-2008-pre-semi-finals/

Day 0 of the tournament

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/07/who-will-euro-2008-day-0/

Pre-tournament (actually about the most accurate overall call CH12 has made this tournament)

https://centerhalf12.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/who-will-win-euro-2008/

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Group B post game – Germany vs Croatia and Austria vs Poland

Germany’s performance made me almost have to retire CH12.  The crystal ball was looking very opaque.  Football reiterated to me – “CH12, you think you know me but you don’t.”  Or to paraphrase  Biggie, “If you don’t know, now you know”… that you don’t know as much as you think. 

 

Croatia did improve their performance as I anticipated, and Olic and company did give Mertesacker and Metzelder problems.  However, the first goal was Jansen’s fault, not the central defenders’, while the second Croatian goal was lucky but the two M’s didn’t react as quickly as Olic.  Modric was great in the first 20 minutes, the last 20 minutes and skated through the time in between.  However, Kovac and Pranjic picked up the slack during that period, the defense was solid and, if not for Kranjcar’s profligacy, the game should have been over in the first half and the result could have resembled Spain’s scoreline against Russia.  Coach Loew, Fritz is not working out.  Start Schweinsteiger – Podolski and he were the only ones who showed a sense of urgency.  Too bad you won’t be able to yell Bastian till the quarters at the earliest given his silly red card, but something needs to change on the wing.  Odonkor is not really the answer either.  Maybe Hitzlsperger.  Super Mario – you are killing me.  It may be time for Kuranyi to start.  He’s good in the air and better on the ground than Mario has shown himself to be in this tournament. 

 

Having said all that, I give Bilic credit.  They played well and didn’t let the Germans play their game.  I have to also give them credit on the set up work on the first goal.  The pass into the box sucked the right back into the striker, but instead of turning or laying it off to his teammate in the center of the park, he sent it back to the passer who had all the time and space to make the telling cross.  It was very much like an inbounds play in basketball where the ball goes back to the inbounding player and no one is there to pick him up.  And of course, they needed Jansen to be asleep on the back post, but that’s already been picked up in the earlier rant.  

 

Man of the match for Croatia was Modric for asking for, and taking care of, the ball when he needed to; Rakitic was also brilliant in spots. For Germany, Podolski again was their best player on the pitch.

 

Pre-game prediction: Germany 2 Croatia 0

Result: Germany 1 Croatia 2

Scorers: Darijo Srna, Ivica Olic (Croatia) Lukas Podolski (Germany) 

 

The second game gets going, gets toward the end and I am starting to have confidence in the crystal ball again… and then injury time happens.  That’s two picks that have been blown after the 90 minute mark.  Not that I am keeping score or anything but I am now at 50% at 6 and 6. Good thing I don’t bet on games.   

 

Watching Austria blow two one on ones – too bad Harnik’s not an out and out striker – and one point blank shot, I had no doubt that it was going to come back to bite them.  It’s the same as when the shooter doesn’t throw the dice hard enough to hit the back wall – you almost always seven out.  Boruc kept Poland in the game and, sure enough, Roger scored a goal – offside though it was.  Poland actually played well thereafter, with Roger and Krzynowek (that man has a harder left foot than Jon Arne Riise, and that’s saying something) creating options every time they came down the field.  It was probably a just result that Austria pulled a goal back but it’s ridiculous that they called that a penalty after all the tugging and pulling that has gone on, and will continue to go on, unpunished in dead ball situations.  Great penalty.  Anelka, that’s how you strike it.  Man of the match for Poland was Boruc, though Roger ran him a close second; for Austria, I was digging Korkmaz.   

 

Pre-game prediction: Poland 2 Austria 1

Result: Poland 1 Austria 1

Scorers: Roger Guerreiro (Poland) Ivica Vastic (Austria) 

 

Now we will hear about all the permutations that can occur to determine who goes through from this group.

 

On to the game of the tournament.  I can’t wait.  Italy vs Romania…  Okay, so that’s a close second to the other game – Holland (that’s what you call them when they play fantasy football.  If they lose, they are back to Netherlands IMB… In My Book for you non literary 18 year olds) vs France.  Hup Oranje, Allez Francaise… Forza Italia?? 

 

 

 

 

 

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Group B predictions for second round of play – Germany v Croatia, Poland v Austria

I think this will be similar to the Group A second round results.  Croatia will play better than they did against Austria.  But Germany will play better than they did against Poland.  Modric will struggle against Ballack and Frings in the center of the field and will start drifting to the wings to find more room and time.  No double for Podolski this time.  I think it’s time for Ballack and Gomez to score.  Klose will have at least one more assist.  Lehmann gets a clean sheet.  Interesting to see if Olic and friends can make things a bit more difficult for the slower Metzelder and Mertesacker.

Austria will give Poland a run for their money but the Poles will come through – they have to with Croatia having beaten Austria.  However, it’s going to be tight.  Austria know that if they lose this game, they have a high likelihood of getting blanked at this tournament with Germany being their next and last opponent.  A draw is likely but I give the nod to Poland as I still think they go through ahead of Croatia.

Pre-game prediction:

Germany 2 Croatia 0

Poland 2 Austria 1

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Germany vs Poland – post match

Germany in the first half looked as if they were still at World Cup 2006 with even Loew looking like a brunette Klinsmann on the sidelines (okay so that’s pushing it but just a bit). The Poles matched them for a few minutes as well with Krzynowek, who has a howitzer in his left foot (ask Casillas if he remembers the blast he put by him when he played at Leverkusen), blasting over after a weak punch out by Lehmann. After that it was almost all Germany. The passing was quick. They interchanged and moved off the ball well and Klose was at his usual unselfish best and almost laid on an open net for Mario Gomez before doing so for Podolski. Two players conspiring to score against their birth country must be tough for the Poles. Gomez had a poor game and flubbed a couple of sitters but he will come good. Must have been nerves today. I liked that Podolski played in the hole – he was man of the match even if he hadn’t scored both goals. His aggressiveness and movement were great. This is going to give Podolski all the confidence he needs and, especially if Gomez comes on as I believe, Germany is going to be tough as they will score. The center of the defense looks suspect though as Metzelder doesn’t have match sharpness and Mertesacker is too slow for small and quick strikers.

Germany will win the group and I believe Poland will come through in second. Roger needs to start as he was the only one who seemed to have any luck going forward – Poland’s player of the match IMO.

Pre-game prediction: Germany 1 Poland 0

Result: Germany 2 Poland 0

Scorers: Podolski 2 (Germany)

Perfect on Sunday and 3 and 1 with my picks so far. Interestingly enough no game has seen both sides score in the same match. Big day coming up tomorrow – the Group of Death – and one in which I predict at least one of the matches will have both sides score. With the players falling by the wayside even before game time, they are taking this a bit too far. We’d prefer they die on the field instead of hurting themselves and sitting out the games 🙂 ….

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