Tag Archives: who will win euro 2012

Euro 2012 Semi final 2: Germany vs Italy pre match prediction

After watching Italy labor against England, and have to play extra time, this is a stone cold lock – Germany wins this semi final easily.  Everyone has a chance when you play a match at this level.  However, this is as certain an outcome as there has been in the knockout stage – even more than Germany beating Greece.  The only event that could derail a German victory is Neuer or one of the defenders getting a red card while giving up a penalty to Italy.

Why Italy Will Win

  1. Gigi Buffon has the greatest game any Italian goalie has ever had.
  2. Coach Low decides to do something unconventional up front and doesn’t start his top three of Gomez, Muller and Podolski.
  3. Italy usually beats Germany in major tournaments and usually wins in semi finals.
  4. Germany gives Pirlo too much time on the ball and doesn’t put him under enough pressure when he is on defense.

Why Germany will win

  1. Two extra days of rest and 30 minutes less of high stress extra time running.  Also, Muller, Gomez and Podolski didn’t even play half of the quarterfinal against Greece so they are going to be fresh.
  2. They’ve beaten every one else so far and Italy doesn’t look that great.
  3. Ozil, Muller and Podolski will not give Pirlo a free pass when Germany has the ball.  They will expose his lack of pace on defense and the space behind him is going to be gobbled up by Ozil.  It’s the reason Milan got rid of him after Manchester United exposed his liabilities so adroitly a couple of years ago.  The German midfield will not let Italy have any time on the ball and by the 60 minute mark, fatigue will set in and the Italians will struggle.
  4. While Badstuber hasn’t been particularly great, Hummels, Lahm and Neuer have played well enough to corral Cassano and Balotelli.

Pre match prediction:  Germany 2 Italy 0

Muller hasn’t scored yet.  That will change.  Gomez will add a second.  See you in the finals Spain.

 

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Euro 2012 Pre-Quarterfinal predictions – Updated Winner

This is what I wrote pre-tournament:

The knockout rounds

QF 1: Russia vs Netherlands (Netherlands to advance)

QF 2: Germany vs Poland (Germany to advance)

QF 3: Spain vs England (Spain to advance)

QF 4: France vs Ireland (France to advance)

Yes, all top four seeds to go through. Pretty predictable – which means upsets are sure to come.

Spain beats Netherlands in SF1 and Germany beats France in SF2 with Germany beating Spain in the finals.

The current odds have Spain and Germany more or less even at around 3/1, with the Netherlands around 6/1, France at 10/1 and England and Italy at about 15/1.  The dark horse in this tournament is the Netherlands (if you can call them a dark horse as the third best team), while my upset pick is Portugal (which at 20/1 is “well worth a flutter” as the Brits put it).  The Player of Euro 2012 will be Mesut Ozil.

Now that we know what’s happened, I had only 4 out of 8 quarter finalists correct and only two positions correct i.e. that Spain and Germany would win their groups.  Of all of the upsets, I would say the Czech Republic winning Group A is the biggest and at this stage I feel like other than the Czech Republic and Greece, any of the other six teams can win Euro 2012.  While Germany has won all 3 games and Spain has won 2 and drawn 1, neither has shown that they are runaway winners.  With a chance to step up and display their class before the knockout rounds, both teams were potentially on course to get knocked out of the tournament with 10 minutes to go in their last match.  Not championship confirming credentials.  That said, they are both on course and still my picks to get to the final and Germany is still the tournament favorite in my book.

The UPDATED knockout rounds

QF 1: Czech Republic vs Portugal (Portugal to advance)

QF 2: Germany vs Greece (Germany to advance)

QF 3: Spain vs France (Spain to advance)

QF 4: England vs Italy (Italy to advance)

Any of the eight teams can win their quarterfinal match.  It’s that close.  However, I think the only one that isn’t a stone cold lock in my book is England vs Italy with the Italians probably slightly favored in this encounter.

Spain beats England in SF1 and Germany beats Portugal in SF2 with Germany beating Spain in the finals.

That said, don’t be surprised if Portugal wins this tournament and England gets to the finals.  Portugal was my upset pick pre tournament and as long as Pepe and Bruno Alves don’t pick up two yellow cards before the final, they can absolutely beat Germany and get to the finals where they can get past Spain, England or France.  The one team they will struggle against may be Italy.  The Player of Euro 2012 so far has been… no one.  Pilar, Pepe, Mario Gomez, Karagounis, Iniesta, Benzema, Gerrard and Pirlo have all been huge for their teams, but this is the time for the big guns to step up. I think an odds on bet now would suggest a Real Madrid player will be the player of the tournament with Ozil, Ronaldo and Benzema all going to have to be huge for their teams to win Euro 2012.  I still like Ozil to be this Euros’ Xavi – though if Ozil does his job for Germany, it will be Mario Gomez in a landslide as top goal scorer and player of the tournament.


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